Independent Events
Why understanding a simple concept from your Maths textbook can be a powerful life skill?
The theme of this article is to equip you with an additional thinking tool — the concept of Independent Events.
Ram and Shyam, working as door-to-door salesmen in Bombay, spend their days making random calls to sell insurance policies. One evening, after a week of calls, they meet at Dadar Station on Saturday for the weekly review meeting at their office. Ram has achieved 5 successful sales, while Shyam has only secured only one.
Curious about Ram’s success, Shyam leans in and asks, “Hey Ram, how do you manage to get good numbers, month on month? What’s your secret?”
Ram smiles and responds, “Well, Shyam, I approach each call as its own opportunity. I don’t let one bad call affect the next one, understanding that every call is an Independent Event.”
Shyam wipes off sweat and replies , “ That’s dense man! A bit academic, too! But it’s hard to shake off rejection. The negativity from one call often carries over to the next, and I’m left feeling uninspired and drained.”
As they walk towards their office, through the rough and tumble of Bombay streets Ram puts his hand over Shyam’s shoulders, “I’m not immune to feeling discouraged by repeated failures either. In the beginning of my sales career — it was tough to face rejection. However, over time, I’ve disciplined myself to treat each new call as a fresh start. I’ve realised that this approach tends to lead to a better performance in the long run.”
As they start climbing the stairs, Shyam quipped, “ I always assumed that you crack each sales call that you make you.”
Ram smiled,” In that case I would be the only salesman in history to have a 100% strike rate! One thing I have learnt in the last one year is to make a conscious effort to learn from each call, taking into account my mistakes and reflecting on what could have been done better. I view each call as an iteration toward improvement. ”
As the office door glided open, Shyam thanked Ram for his time.
Let’s take toss a fair coin twice.
Event A: Getting heads on the first toss.
Event B: Getting tails on the second toss.
These events are independent because the outcome of the first toss (heads or tails) does not affect the outcome of the second toss.
The probability of getting heads on the second toss is 1/2 regardless of what happens on the first toss.
In Chapter 24 of his incredible work “The Millionaire Fastlane,” — M.J. DeMarco encourages us to “ Wipe our Windshield Clean” .
While pumping gas into my Lamborghini, a teenager once asked me if he could snap some pictures. “Sure, go ahead!” I replied. After a few rants and raves about the car, he exclaimed, “I gotta get as many pictures as possible cuz I’ll never be able to afford one of these.”
See a problem in that conclusion? This young man made a choice to believe he would never own a Lamborghini. He couldn’t see beyond his own windshield. …This seemingly innocent choice of perception has the excruciating horsepower of treason. It is a crippler of dreams.
Adopting a mindset similar to Ram can empower us to better navigate our lives ; to not let our fixed perception of our past colour our future.
As Eckhart Tolle, states in his excellent book The Power of Now :
Die to the past every moment. You don’t need it. Only refer to it when it is absolutely relevant to the present.
I hope this article was of value to you 🪼
